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The decline in volume becomes clear when comparing the current period to the previous year. In the third quarter of 2025, global shipments totaled 78.5 million units. By the third quarter of 2026, this figure had fallen to 62.7 million units. This represents one of the sharpest year-over-year declines recorded in recent market cycles.

Impact of Inventory Build-ups and Price Increases

The current market volatility is largely attributable to a specific phenomenon. In the first half of 2026, hardware vendors and distribution channels stockpiled inventory ahead of schedule. This stockpiling was a strategic response to anticipated price increases for PC hardware, as stakeholders sought to secure components before costs rose.

This early increase in inventory disrupted the market’s usual seasonal pattern. Normally, shipment volumes are higher in the third quarter than in the second. However, because the market was oversaturated in the first half of the year, demand declined in the third quarter. The combination of excess inventory and significantly higher retail prices has led to a noticeable slowdown in demand from both consumers and businesses.

The decline in shipments has affected the majority of major hardware vendors, with some reporting double-digit declines in volume. The impact was particularly pronounced for two of the largest market players:

  • HP: Reported a 30.9% decline in shipments.
  • Dell: Recorded a 25% decline in shipments.

Although temporary promotions and discounts were used to boost sales, these measures were not sufficient to offset the general trend of rising hardware costs and declining purchasing power.

Analyses suggest that hardware prices are likely to remain at a high level in the coming quarters. This price stability at a higher level, combined with deteriorating macroeconomic conditions, could further dampen demand. Consequently, there is a risk that the market will continue to deteriorate before reaching a point of stabilization.